Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

The Small Long

Charging bull By Aseba - http://www.flickr.com/photos/aseba/6179708990/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=28333508
Currently, there are a few consecutive days of gains in the Singapore stock exchange. However, a few trading sessions are not large enough to compensate for the market free fall in the past two months. Given that Singapore is dependent on oil, gas and marine, as well as commodities, and our banks have a large loan book from these sectors, notably DBS with 8% of its loans to the oil and gas sector and 4% to commodities, there had been asset deterioration.

The banking sector in Singapore now has a P/E ratio below 10, around the bottom P/E level of bear markets. Among all the banks, DBS has the lowest P/E at 8.56 currently.

However, future earnings in banks seem uncertain. Oil and gas prices collapsed and will probably stay low for a long time. Our banks have substantial exposure to China - 17% for DBS especially, and there is an expected slowdown in the Chinese economy. Also, there is no substantial new economic activity in Singapore, as Singapore is still struggling in healthcare, education and technology sectors. Where can banks find higher quality, more financially sustainable sources of loan?

Even with the recent gains in Straits Times Index (STI), I doubt the gains will go on for a long time. If you ever invest in stock markets now, you may consider long the market, but not for long.

Only when DBS reaches around 8 dollars then I may consider buy back DBS, such is the lack of market confidence in the Singapore stock market that we should be wary of false hope.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Why invest in stocks? A primer on stock investing

Why invest in stocks?

You buy in stocks - because you get to own companies.

Ownership. This is more exciting than earning a profit on trades or flips. You actually have a stake in something that is so important, that hires some people and pays taxes to the Government for its programs.

The stock market platform is a platform where you can buy and sell ownership of companies fairly and equally. They can attract investors to trade fairly. They help companies to raise funds from us in a highly liquid market, where shares can be easily traded.

Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange


When a stock is listed, it must meet certain criteria. A company's stock on the catalist needs to be sponsored by a financial institution. To list on the mainboard, a company needs to meet certain criteria of scale, such as pre-tax profits of S$30 million in more than three financial years recently, and capitalisation of more than S$150 million.

There are different stocks to buy. They include: stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs, where property and financial institutions' managers bundle properties into tradable portions), exchange traded funds (ETFs), warrants, extended settlements, bonds and preference shares.

For REITs listed in Singapore, there are 34 of them in 6 different categories: residential, office, retail, hotel, industrial and hospitality.  Although interest rate environments are difficult for REITs, I think given the recent property cooling measures, it is actually more attractive to invest in residential REITs that cater to the higher end markets than in mass-market or suburban developments.

ETFs, on the other hand, buys and sells shares to reflect performance without the use of a fund manager, in accordance to an indicator. Examples include Lyxor, SPDR, STI ETF by Nikko AM, and so on.

Bonds are fixed IOUs where we buy a company's borrowings. Unfortunately, liquidity in Singaporean bond markets is not liquid enough, as we are a small market.

Preference shares are shares that give us a higher priority than ordinary shareholders, when companies dissolve and distribute residual profits. In exchange for a fixed dividend, preference shareholders do not hold voting shares. Also, there might not be maturity dates on preference shares, unless they are callable hares.

There are two schools of thought in share investing: technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis (FA).

TA is the art of predicting the future price movements of a company, based on both price and volume. TA gives us a point of reference on when we can enter and exit a market. Most stock beginners tend to be carried away by the hoopla of TA, because they will remember the patterns and candlesticks of intraday and inter-day charts, and make a living out of timing the markets. But the market is not made up of just winners. People are as likely to lose money as they do gain profits in the stock market. Indeed, only 5% of traders consistently succeed. I am trying my best to be one of the top 5%.

One should buy companies at the right pricing and exit at the right juncture. Hence, TA is useful as a guide to stock entry. However, it shouldn't be used alone.

Enter FA.

For new investors, I would strongly recommend they learn FA, if they want to get serious about share investing. If you need some guidance on share picking, do +1 or contact me on Google+ or Blogger. It will take some time as I have a day job (explaining the long gap between posts on this blog), but FA will definitely be worth it. The good thing is, to trade stocks, you just need to be old enough to legally trade them, and you have the desire to know more about the companies you are investing in.

Stock market investing should be a pleasant, sweet experience. We should preferably invest in the companies that we understand well. We should be familiar with the business models of the firms, understand that they are in great financial health, being satisfied with their returns and capital gains and satisfied at their growth or corporate development.

The main tool FA aficionados use is the Price-Earnings, or P/E ratio. Earnings grow, but the prices may not reflect the growth of earnings proportionately.

For stocks with a P/E ratio of below 10, they are deemed as 'cheaper'. For stocks with a P/E ratio of above 20, they are deemed as expensive. Most firms have P/E ratio of between 10 and 20. This means, when a firm has a P/E ratio of 5 to 9 and it is doing well, we should snap it at the right timing from TA trends. When a firm has unsustainable P/E ratio of more than 25 times, unless it is a growth stock with exciting developments the firm can afford to pay, I would not touch the stock.

When you invest in shares, you have to take note of cumulative dividends and cumulative rights, or cum dividend/CD or cum rights/CR in short. Stocks with CD do not yet distribute dividends, while stocks with XD (eX-dividend) has already distributed dividends. For CR, they are meant to help the company to raise money for existing shareholders. The company is issuing more shares, and it may offer current shareholders to buy new shares at discounted prices.

Earlier, I mentioned that buying shares mean buying shares of management in the company. You do not hold physical certificates in owning shares these days. They are kept with the Central Depository. Unless you go to their office to ask for share certificates, you don't get share certificates to show you're an owner of some shares of the company.

When you look at stocks, you have to consider the operations of a firm.

Basic ratios have to be profitability ratios (gross and net profit margins), liquidity ratios (think current ratio) and solvency ratios (along with interest coverage ratio). It has to be one with solid potential growth in the next 5-10 years. With globalisation, I expect the typical telecommunications, logistics, transport and hospitality-linked firms to keep growing. Also, with climate change, oil prices may not sink forever, and this may result in the rise of commodities, alternative energy (think oil palm, for example) and water.

You can trade your stocks either through a remisier/trading representative, or through the online platform of your stock broker. The trading representative is still relevant to you because he may manage your transactions and credit risk, as you are supposed to make payments within 3 days of the share transaction.

Brokerage houses charge commission rates. Hence, if you want to minimise your brokerage fees, you try to trade within $8,500 for most companies, as most brokerage houses charge 0.28% fees with a $25 minimum commission rate. If you are going to pay $25 per trade anyway, why not trade at around S$8,000 if you can afford it?

You buy 50% of your stocks at the first opportunity. When you're right, buy 30% more stocks at the second entry point, and 20% at the third one. If you're wrong, sell fast.

Pots of Money

Going to any FRANK store, you see that there are four financial principles in life:

1. Saving
2. Investing
3. Insuring
4. Spending

Bank of England
Usually, we save before we spend, we save at least 10% of our income, and we maximise higher returns by looking at banks with higher interest rates. We also try to spend only the necessary, so we can eventually have more money for other uses.

Other uses may include insurance and investments.

Insurance protect our wealth. There are two types of insurance, namely: life and personal insurance.

For life insurance, we need coverage of 7 to 10 times of our monthly income, we need monies to cover our future hospitalisation and medical expenses that is an integrated healthcare plan and rider, we need a whole life or permanent disability insurance policy to cover our financial obligations when we are diagnosed with permanent disability. We may also need dependants' insurance, to cover our loved ones when we are not around.

Personal insurance covers travel insurance, home (housing loan and housing content) insurance and vehicle insurance.

As for investments, we multiply our wealth by two tools: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis looks at the intrinsic value of companies, while technical analysis looks at the direction of market prices and their effects on companies' stock performance.

May I humbly add something never mentioned in 'pots of money' -
5. Contributing.

What is the use of having so much wealth and protection when we are not relevant at all with our society? Our society has so much that we can improve on, especially with the widening rich-poor income gap, we need to do more to help the poor and helpless.