Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Germany: not the future of our economy

We always praise Germany for the good Germany does: free higher education, free and effective healthcare and robust economyGermany benefits from low oil prices through low oil prices and increased contributions from renewable energy. It does not hurt one bit that Germany's national football team are world champions. Almost everyone I know sings the praises for Germany. However, I do not think like ordinary people.

Germany is not what the future of the economy is like. Her education system is not working to maximise their populace's diversity, her most innovative people do not get the opportunity to live out their opportunities, and her banks are not globally competitive to make the most of our global opportunities.

Commerzbank Tower, Frankfurt. What a bank should not be like.By Mylius - Own work, GFDL 1.2, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11184505


There is considerable schisms between classes in Germany. 

Just look at the education system. Indeed, the education system is free at all levels. However this does not give the best outcomes to all students who work hard and do their best in schools. Schools can decide, at age 10, to sort students into different tracks: the university preparatory (gymnasium) track, the realschule track and the vocational hauptschule track. There is no social mobility to speak of. There is no chance a bright shy person whose parents or grandparents move from another country, say, Turkey or Serbia, to move up the social ladder, if his school principal decides no matter how hard a student works or how good he is, he still belongs to the hauptschule schools anyway. 

I am not against vocational schools. I am against their ineffectiveness on German society. 

The hauptschules are regarded as dumping grounds of certain groups of students: students from minority backgrounds, students with special learning needs, students with absent parents who are unemployed, and so on. There is only a remote possibility of a student from hauptschules to get to universities, if any. They just do not work to fill job positions. The employers often do not see the work ethic or the technical know-how to enable graduates of hauptschules to begin their apprenticeships with these companies. A permanent underclass, dependent on welfare, results, and they are not able to contribute to the economy. What a waste to the potentials of German society!

In contrast, Finland has a better model for vocational schools. Students are only divided by ability at age 16, by when many students had already reached puberty and are mature to have a handle on their lives. Also, students in both the academic and vocational paths in Sweden do get the same opportunity to study in university. 

The German societal model is also not looking forward to the future. She is too rigid to withstand the ever changing world. 

Germany does not has an inspiring environment for fashion, unlike France, UK or USA, for fashion or the creative arts.  Germans restricts religion to the point organised religion, a huge unifier of community issues in many countries, is in decline: both the Protestant (Lutheran) and Catholic churches see declines in church attendance. Even rich German people are not able to live up life, as they get criticised in their home countries to live opulent lifestyles. No wonder it has fewer startups than other countries, and even to recent past.

A better societal model may be South Korea. Like Germany, South Korea prides herself as a country with rich cultural and racial heritage, which is essential because I do not think there is another country where ethnic Koreans can call 'home'. Unlike Germany, however, South Korea is more open to new ideas, new inspirations in life and even religions. Also, South Korea has plenty of Ivy League admissionspop culture and startups, above the size of the country (which is smaller than Germany), that the country could be proud of.

Then there is the case for banks. They are losing to foreign competitors and are not able to catch up. German banks may be a sign of things to come for firms in other sectors, such as heavy industries and environmental management, as we all face a world with unrestricted trade globally.

There used to be three large banks in Germany: Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank. In 2008, however, the parent company of Dresdner Bank decided to sell the bank to Commerzbank, which then ceased to be an independent legal entity. Then, in 2012, even Commerzbank is deemed as a bank with declining systemic importance.

Such is the decline of banks in Germany. Banks in Germany are supposed to be shareholders and decision makers of companies, which works to bring better alignment of banks and the companies they loan to. However, with new capitalisation requirements in banks worldwide, they are not able to compete with the larger banks overseas, especially British, American, French and Japanese banks. If they are weak today and do not have the strong resolve to reform for the future, how can German banks be relevant in the future to the companies they loan to, no matter how fantastic those companies are?

Germany certainly has good organisation, good and effective governmental and social institutions and are working towards a more sustainable future. They all need fine tuning for the future, with financial reforms, more openness to new ideas around the world, and a more inclusive and attentive education system to the diverse needs of the Germans.

The Small Long

Charging bull By Aseba - http://www.flickr.com/photos/aseba/6179708990/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=28333508
Currently, there are a few consecutive days of gains in the Singapore stock exchange. However, a few trading sessions are not large enough to compensate for the market free fall in the past two months. Given that Singapore is dependent on oil, gas and marine, as well as commodities, and our banks have a large loan book from these sectors, notably DBS with 8% of its loans to the oil and gas sector and 4% to commodities, there had been asset deterioration.

The banking sector in Singapore now has a P/E ratio below 10, around the bottom P/E level of bear markets. Among all the banks, DBS has the lowest P/E at 8.56 currently.

However, future earnings in banks seem uncertain. Oil and gas prices collapsed and will probably stay low for a long time. Our banks have substantial exposure to China - 17% for DBS especially, and there is an expected slowdown in the Chinese economy. Also, there is no substantial new economic activity in Singapore, as Singapore is still struggling in healthcare, education and technology sectors. Where can banks find higher quality, more financially sustainable sources of loan?

Even with the recent gains in Straits Times Index (STI), I doubt the gains will go on for a long time. If you ever invest in stock markets now, you may consider long the market, but not for long.

Only when DBS reaches around 8 dollars then I may consider buy back DBS, such is the lack of market confidence in the Singapore stock market that we should be wary of false hope.